The Roots of Brazil’s Long Stagnation

Brazil has the natural fundamentals to make a world power. In practice, a lack of functional political institutions means it has squandered this potential. Only a live player can make Brazil matter.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in July 2023. Source.

Brazil has a population of over 200 million people and the tenth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, larger than the economies of South Korea, Russia, or Turkey.¹ After the United States, Brazil is by far the most populous country in the Western Hemisphere. With total land area also comparable to the U.S. and including vast grasslands, rainforest, and fertile soil irrigated by many rivers, Brazil has been viewed as a prime candidate for a future great power since the 19th century. In 1961, Brazilian President Janio Quadros declared that “in five years Brazil will be a great power.”² Sixty years later, Brazil is still not a great power, despite yet new variations on the idea of Brazil’s great potential, such as Brazil’s inclusion in the BRICS grouping of large emerging economies in 2001.³