Seven Briefs the White House Should Read

As a new presidential administration settles into power in Washington, here are the top Bismarck Briefs most relevant to the next four years of governance.

The second Trump administration is the first new U.S. presidential administration to take office since the launch of Bismarck Brief. Here, I would like to offer seven of our reports to the White House for reading—reports which I believe are the most relevant and important to read from our last three years of Bismarck Brief, in order to prepare for the near-future of American governance, administration, and reform.

In our work at Bismarck Analysis, we regularly advise individuals and organizations in government on global developments and strategy. I am often asked what advice I would give to the President of the United States. My most pragmatic and immediate answer to that question would be to direct his staff to begin reading the following Briefs:

1. Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Not Competitors to the State: the violent criminal organizations of Mexico are not the competitors to Mexican elites or the Mexican state, but an outgrowth of the country’s decentralized government and dysfunctional political economy. Full eradication of such organizations cannot be achieved without also reforming Mexico. Read here.

2. The FDIC Makes Financial Returns Predictable at the Cost of Growth: the U.S. government’s financial bureaucracies are deeply intertwined with the health of the economy, especially through the banking and financial systems. This however almost explicitly trades American dynamism and industrial growth for stability and predictability that results in stagnation. Long-term reform to unleash the economy must include a hard look at these financial bureaucracies and their structural effects. Read here.

3. The Functionality of DARPA is Politically Precarious: one of the few undisputed successes of U.S. government intervention in the economy is DARPA, which has seeded technologies from the internet to brain-computer interfaces at low cost and with a small, lean staff. The functionality of DARPA depends on empowering individual scientists and researchers rather than committees; its success can be replicated. Read here.

4. China Isn’t Pursuing Energy Independence: as the U.S. and China face increasing tensions over Taiwan, it is paramount for the preservation of security and diplomacy to understand adversaries’ capabilities. China’s energy base, dependent on seaborne imports, may appear fragile now, but has numerous transformative and relatively straightforward options that would render it effectively energy-independent. Read here.

5. Singapore’s Sovereign Wealth Funds: the government of Singapore runs multiple very successful sovereign wealth funds that specialize in different strategies to meet different goals. While one just focuses on maximizing asset value, another, more dynamic one also focuses on investing in technologies of strategic significance to the country. America could emulate the same model with still greater success. Read here.

6. Raytheon is Now Run Under the Portfolio Theory of the Firm: not all companies behave the same, because some companies are mission-driven organizations led by hard-charging live players with discrete goals, while others are more like passive holding companies led by lawyers, committees, and shareholder consensus. Many government contractors, like Raytheon, belong to the sclerotic latter category, rather than the former. Read here.

7. Sanctions on Russia Failed Because of Chinese Manufacturing: economic and financial sanctions have been a key tool of U.S. foreign policy for decades, but they do not work in all cases, or even equally well, depending on the goal. The rise of China as a major manufacturing power means that U.S. sanctions can no longer cut targets off from a modern industrial base, nor even, for very long, from the cutting edge of technology. Read here.

The full list of over 150 in-depth Bismarck Briefs, covering the most important industries, institutions, and influential individuals in the U.S., Europe, China, Russia, and elsewhere, can be explored chronologically here or using an interactive map here. You can bookmark the links.

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For further immediate reading, here are three more Briefs the new administration should read:

• The Tradition of Knowledge Behind ASML: great feats of industrial and technological capability always rely on a strong tradition of knowledge. To replicate them from afar and from scratch is far more difficult and costly than to poach or extend an existing tradition, like the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. Reindustrializing America will not just be helped by but will necessitate close engagement with the world’s foremost scientific and technological traditions of knowledge, both in America and abroad. Read here.

• Plastic Recycling Does Not Work: insofar as it is a general priority to cut waste and inefficiency, one of the simplest and clearest ways to do so would be to end support for recycling programs that do not work, and replace them with simpler and better methods of disposal. Read here.

• Israel Mobilizes Tech Talent Through Unit 8200: one of Israel’s greatest strengths is its success at scouting and harnessing the full extent of its cognitive talent, including by drafting young hackers and engineers into the military’s cyberwarfare operations. America does not fully identify, empower, and harness its own talent. There is no reason this state of affairs should continue. Read here.

Sincerely,

Samo Burja

Founder and President, Bismarck Analysis