Ukraine is Forging a New State Through War
Starting from a very low base, the Ukrainian state has been centralizing power since 2014. Despite acceleration following the Russian invasion, it must now also coordinate a coalition of live players.
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Ukraine is currently the only modern state fighting an existential war against another modern state, which has led it to activate long-dormant institutional mechanisms like mass mobilization or martial law. As modern states were historically forged through war, such mechanisms still exist in other states in the developed world, but for most have seemingly atrophied due to disuse. This may change if the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is successful. The invasion is being closely watched by states around the world—most notably China, which is weighing the feasibility of invading Taiwan. The war is also the most important proxy conflict between the United States and Russia. Its economic and political consequences will alter the trajectories of every major society in the world, with perhaps the largest and variable factor being the institutional strength and shape of the Ukrainian state that is central to the tremendous war effort.