Spain is Not a Model for Europe

One of Europe's largest countries is also one of its oldest and most dependent on tourism. Despite promising fundamentals, it is a canary in the coal mine for aging populations under social democracy.

The Spanish capital Madrid in 2018. Photo by Florian Wehde. Source.

With a population of nearly 50 million people, Spain is one of the largest member states of the European Union (EU), larger than Poland and only somewhat smaller than France or Italy. Spain is an affluent liberal democracy with a booming tourism sector and a diversified industrial base. Whether in nominal or purchasing power-adjusted terms, Spain’s GDP per capita is on par with South Korea and Japan, though somewhat lower than France’s or Italy’s.¹ Recently, Spain has won praise in prestige media outlets for its economic growth, which in 2024 reportedly surpassed even the U.S. economic growth rate.² In late 2024, The Economist ranked Spain as the best-performing economy among wealthy countries.³ Facing fundamental energy, demographic, and security challenges, Europe is in need of a new political and economic model which, if found, would permanently alter the global economic, geopolitical, and military balance. These Spanish economic growth figures are misleading, however, and, rather than a model, Spain provides a case study in the dangers of failing to solve demographic, industrial, and political problems facing European democracies.